“From risk to resilience – How a supplier turned uncertainty into strategic advantages”
Problem
AI-supported risk management in medium-sized businesses
A medium-sized family business with around 1,200 employees and a strong focus on industrial components had been thrown into turmoil several times by external shocks: pandemic-related material shortages, a sudden loss of its main supplier in Eastern Europe, and wildly fluctuating energy prices. Traditional risk analysis in Excel was simply overwhelmed. Management recognized that stable business development would no longer be possible without data-driven, proactive risk management.
The Decision: With a limited budget but maximum commitment to change, a modular AI solution was introduced that monitors, evaluates, and prioritizes risks in real time. From cyber threats to political risks to price volatility, the system combined internal ERP data with external market intelligence feeds, news services, and price exchanges. The goal: an early warning system instead of damage reports.
Solution
The AI evaluated over 3,000 data points from 14 countries every day and generated individual risk scores for all critical suppliers, materials, and customer projects. What was particularly innovative was that the solution independently suggested alternatives, such as simulating regional purchasing scenarios or switching to other raw materials. An interactive dashboard not only visualized risks but also showed proactive courses of action.
Benefit
The result:
- Identification of 87% of risks 2–6 weeks before occurrence
- Reduction in damage costs due to downtime by 44%
- 65% reduction in response time to market changes
- Establishment of a strategic risk pool for emergency procurement
Particularly effective: When an important supplier withdrew the following year due to geopolitical sanctions, the company was already prepared—with validated alternatives, fixed terms, and immediate call-off capacitie
The learning: Risk management is not insurance—it is a competitive strategy. Especially in small and medium-sized businesses, where resources are scarce, systems are needed that think, learn, and make decisions. AI in risk management means turning uncertainty into the ability to act. And potential crises become strategic options
Quote from the project: “We used to have a feel for risks—now we have a system that thinks for us.” – Managing Director, medium-sized supplier company